I’ve noticed an interesting trend in the business side of the travel world which reflects the mentality of travelers out there. These trends can also, if looked at correctly, allow insight into where to expect great deals in the future and where to avoid tourists.

Thomas Cook, a major European travel firm, recently announced that they are cutting back on short haul flights from the UK to central Europe due to the pound losing value against the dollar. According to Thomas Cook, European travelers prefer to pay more to get to countries where their money goes farther.

This is an interesting mentality in that it underscores the fact that travelers, at least European ones, regard travel as more of a necessity as opposed to a luxury. People are willing to pay the premium of a long haul flight and potentially hedging their costs by visiting countries where their money can go farthest. This ‘strategy’ doesn’t imply that it would be cheaper to do so as opposed to going to somewhere in central Europe, it simply means that for roughly the same amount of money travelers would pay to spend their vacation in Europe, they are able to experience more somewhere farther away and more exotic. Those travelers who would still prefer to stay in Europe are making their way to eastern European countries like Turkey and Croatia. These countries still offer vacationers value for their money.

The obvious economic factors such as the strength of the Euro, gas prices etc. are impacting the movement of travelers away from countries which traditionally have generated strong tourism revenues. This can have a significant impact on countries such as Spain and Greece. The Balearic islands have been a favorite travel destination for many UK travelers, but this year, due to the afore mentioned economic factors, Spain can expect a smaller British invasion. As for Greece, still reeling from the damages from the forest fires, the impact of tourism being diverted is a reality which is hard to swallow. A significant amount of tourism revenue which could be used to rebuild and reinvest into Greece’s tourism infrastructure could be redirected to the coffers of other countries such as Thailand, Mexico and the Caribbean countries.

Third world destinations such as Thailand, Mexico and the Caribbean would do well to push marketing efforts in European countries at the moment. Perhaps not so much Thailand since they are coming out of a record year, it has always been a popular destination and their economy is doing quite well (which to me is another indicator of things to come – I’ll save that for another posting), but Mexico and the Caribbean, in fact, any country that relies on US tourism revenue, could benefit on the current state of the tourism world. These countries meet most of what European travelers are looking for:

1. Cost effective travel where their money can go a long way

2. Countries which have significant amounts of promotions due to the fact that their reliance on American travelers may impact their revenue stream given the state of the US economy and

3. They are far away and exotic.

When taken on an aggregate, tourism revenue on a global basis continues to increase exponentially. Meaning, there is always money being poured into travel and that on a whole, people are traveling more. It is more the movement of revenue which highlights and impacts a lot of destinations and determines where a majority of travelers end up vacationing. So if we can understand the movement of money we can understand the movement of travelers. Likewise, politics and social environments determine movement as well. Therefore, I believe, it is safe to say that if you want to travel off of the beaten path, understanding these factors could help you find some places where tourists won’t tread, for now at least.